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This is a long overdue update of the Irish Polling Indicator, which I had not updated since the end of 2017. This new update includes all polls published since then and also adds the polls of Ireland Thinks. The other pollsters included in the model are Behaviour & Attitudes, Ipsos MRBI, Millward Brown and Red C Research. Because not all pollsters publish figures on all minor parties, I now report one category of Others/Independents (including Independent Alliance). Votes for Independent candidates form the bulk of this category.

Irish survey institutes have released fifteen polls since the general election in February 2020. Currently, support for Fine Gael ranges between 30.5 and 35.5 per cent. Two polls in August and early September put Fianna Fáil at 10 and 11 per cent, the lowest ever recorded results (besides a Sunday Independent/Millward Brown poll from September 2011, which also ranked Fianna Fáil at 10 per cent). Retrospectively, the Polling Indicator estimated Fianna Fáil at around 13 per cent during this time. The latest release of the Polling Indicator ranks the party of Taoiseach Micheál Martin at 15.5 [13.5-18] per cent.

This update includes a new Red C poll published on 26 November.

Please note that the most recent poll incorporated in this update is from the beginning of this month. At that time, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil seemed to do quite a bit better than their GE 2016 result.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael battle it out for top spot

In the first Irish Polling Indicator for the 32nd Dáil, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are leading the polls with estimates around 26% each. The Irish Polling Indicator pools all Irish opinion polls to arrive at an overall estimate of where the parties stand. Fine Gael support has not changed since the February elections. The party is currently estimated at between 24.5% and 28.5%. Fianna Fáil had seen a bit of an increase in support in early July, but is currently back around General Election levels: 22.5% to 28%. The difference between the two top parties is so small that we cannot conclude which one is currently enjoying more popular support in vote intention polls.

Independents and minor parties on the rise

Only a few days before the election, polls continue to indicate that this might be the election of the independent candidates and smaller parties. The group of Independents and others has improved their total score from about 22% early this year to 25% in the latest Irish Polling Indicator, which combines all opinion polls into one estimate. Within that group the Social Democrats are doing particularly well recently, currently polling well over 3%, with AAA-PBP on almost 4% and Renua on 2%. Independent candidates, including the Independent alliance, are now on more than 14% support.

Three new polls were published yesterday, each taken over two or more days in the past week. While their messages were mixed, the overall impact on the Irish Polling Indicator polling average is limited. Generally, Labour and Sinn Féin seem not to be doing particularly well this campaign, with Fine Gael also showing a loss of momentum. Fianna Fáil and some of the smaller parties, particularly the Green Party and Social Democrats seem to be doing relatively well. But it is important to note that most of these changes are within the relevant 95% uncertainty margin, meaning that we cannot be too sure about these patterns.