Blog Posts

This update adds two polls released on Sunday, 26 January 2020. A Red C poll was published in the Sunday Business Post; the Irish Mail on Sunday reported on a poll conducted by Ireland Thinks.

This update adds the poll published by Ipsos MRBI in the Irish Times on 20 January. This poll put Fianna Fáil in pole position (25 per cent), but the difference to Fine Gael (on 23 per cent) is much smaller than in the Behaviour & Attitudes poll published at the weekend, which ranked Fianna Fáil at 32 and Fine Gael at 20 per cent.

This is a long overdue update of the Irish Polling Indicator, which I had not updated since the end of 2017. This new update includes all polls published since then and also adds the polls of Ireland Thinks.

This update includes a new Red C poll published on 26 November.

Please note that the most recent poll incorporated in this update is from the beginning of this month. At that time, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil seemed to do quite a bit better than their GE 2016 result.

Data & graphs

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael battle it out for top spot In the first Irish Polling Indicator for the 32nd Dáil, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are leading the polls with estimates around 26% each.

Independents and minor parties on the rise Only a few days before the election, polls continue to indicate that this might be the election of the independent candidates and smaller parties.

Three new polls were published yesterday, each taken over two or more days in the past week. While their messages were mixed, the overall impact on the Irish Polling Indicator polling average is limited.