Irish Polling Indicator

The Irish Polling Indicator, a project maintained by Stefan Müller, combines all Irish opinion polls for the Dáil Éireann into one estimate of public support for the parties. Estimates from the Irish Polling Indicator were reported in the Irish Times, the Financial Times, the Business Post, RTÉ News, The Sunday Times, BreakingNews.ie, and TheJournal.ie.

Scroll down for the latest estimates, interactive graphs, a description of the method, access to the raw data, and blog posts.

Latest Estimates

Party EP Affiliation Estimate 95% Uncertainty Margins
Sinn Féin Left – GUE/NGL 24.5% 23%–25.5%
Independents/Others 21.5% 19.5%–24%
Fine Gael EPP 20.5% 19%–22.5%
Fianna Fáil RE 17.5% 16%–19%
Green Party Greens/EFA 4.5% 3.5%–5%
Social Democrats 4% 3%–5%
Labour S&D 3.5% 3%–4%
Aontú 2% 1.5%–2.5%
Solidarity-PBP Left – GUE/NGL 2% 1.5%–2.5%
Latest update: 02 Jun 2024. A note on the Bayesian credible intervals: If all of the assumptions of our model hold, then there is a 95% probability that a party’s support is within the range of the 95% uncertainty margins. The “EP Affiliation” column indicates the political groups of parties in the European Parliament.

Download polling data and aggregated estimates

Interactive Graphs

Change in Support since the Last Election


All Polls

House Effects

The graph below displays the house effects of the polling companies for each party. A positive house effect means that a pollster structurally estimates a certain party higher than the average pollster. The dot indicates the best estimate for the house effect (measured as percentage point differences), the lines display 95% uncertainty margins.

Explore more interactive graphs

Method

The basic idea of the Irish Polling Indicator, launched in 2014, is to take all available polling information together to arrive at the best estimate of current support for parties. Polls are great tools for measuring public opinion, but because only a limited sample is surveyed, we need to take into account sampling error. By combining multiple polls, we can reduce this error.

Moreover, with so many polls going around it is difficult to get a random sample of voters to participate in any one public opinion survey. And those that do participate might not have a clear idea who to vote for, something that is often adjusted for in polls. This may lead to structural differences between the results of different polling companies, so-called house effects.

The Irish Polling Indicator considers sampling error and house effects when aggregating support for Irish parties.

Read more about the method and technical details

Datasets

Irish Polling Indicator

We provide full access to all available polling results (1982–2024) and daily aggregated estimates (1987–2024). We provide the daily estimates and raw polling results in four file formats. A detailed codebook describes both datasets and all variables.

Development Version (Latest Data Release)

First, we release our datasets as a development version which is updated after the release of every poll and stored in a GitHub repository.

If you use the development version of the data in your work, please consider citing:

Tom Louwerse and Stefan Müller. 2024. Irish Polling Indicator Datasets: Development Version. URL: https://github.com/Irish-Polling-Indicator/ipi-data.

Stable Version

Second, we provide a stable version of the daily estimates and raw polling results. New releases are published after an election cycle. The stable version has a unique identifier (DOI: 10.7910/DVN/BY5GXC).

If you use the stable version in your work, please consider citing:

Tom Louwerse and Stefan Müller. 2022. Irish Polling Indicator Datasets: Stable Version. Harvard Dataverse, V1. DOI: 10.7910/DVN/BY5GXC

Irish Demographic Polling Datasets

In addition to the Irish Polling Indicator data, the Irish Demographic Polling Datasets collect results on vote intentions, satisfaction with the government, and popularity of party leaders. The polling results are available for all respondents and various subsamples, such as age groups, gender, social class, geographic region, and district magnitude. The database merges over 100 polls, published between 2011 and 2024. The datasets can be accessed, visualised, and downloaded through an interactive dashboard.

All datasets and variables are described in a detailed report and codebook (PDF). If you use the Irish Demographic Polling Datasets in your work, please consider citing:

Stefan Müller, Thomas Pluck, and Paula Montano. 2024. Irish Demographic Polling Datasets. URL: https://github.com/Irish-Dem-Polling/datasets

About Us

Project Leader and Maintainer

Stefan Müller is an Assistant Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at University College Dublin. Stefan’s research focuses on political representation, party competition, political communication, public opinion, and quantitative text analysis.
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Founding Member

Tom Louwerse is an Associate Professor in Political Science at Leiden University, the Netherlands. Tom’s research and teaching focuses on elections, political representation and parliamentary politics in the Netherlands and other established democracies.
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Research Assistant

Paula Montano X/Twitter

Supporters and Partners

The Irish Polling Indicator is hosted at the Institute of Political Science at Leiden University and the Connected_Politics Lab at University College Dublin. The project received financial support from the 2021 Strategic Funding Scheme of the UCD College of Social Sciences and Law.

Contact

Please do not hesitate contact us if you have any questions about the project or if you would like to include our estimates in reports or articles. If you refer to our data, please mention the Irish Polling Indicator and its maintainers, Tom Louwerse and Stefan Müller. Feel free to use the data in your academic work, and please consider citing the Irish Polling Indicator data.