Irish Polling Indicator, update June 2025
Seven months after the 2024 general election and around a month before the Dáil recess, it’s time for an update. The last months have seen the formation of a new government, the scandal around speaking rights in the Dáil, and heated debates about housing targets. The latest Irish Polling Indicator estimates consider all polls published until the end of June.
The State of the Parties
According to the Irish Polling Indicator, Sinn Féin remains the leading party with 21.5% [95% uncertainty margins: 20–23], slightly ahead of Fianna Fáil on 20.5% [19–21.5]. Fine Gael follows at 18% [16.5–19.5]. Independents and Other Parties not listed below poll at 15% [13.5–17].
Among the smaller parties, the Social Democrats poll at 7.5% [6.5–8.5], putting them ahead of Labour on 5% [4–5.5] and Independent Ireland at 4% [3–5]. Aontú stands at 3.5% [3–4.5], Solidarity–PBP at 3% [2.5–3.5], and the Green Party trails at 2.5% [2–3].
Polling Compared to the 2024 General Election
In addition to reporting first-preference vote intention, we can also directly compare the current estimates to the 2024 general election results. The figure below displays the percentage point differences between the current polling estimates and the first-preference vote shares in the 2024 general election. Values above 0 indicate that a party’s support has increased; values below 0 indicate that the party’s 2024 vote share was higher than its current estimated support. If the confidence interval crosses 0, the difference is not statistically significant.
Among the parties, only Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats show statistically significant increases in support compared to their 2024 general election results. Sinn Féin is up by an estimated 2.5 percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from +1% to +4%. The Social Democrats have gained a similar 2.5 points [1.5–3.5]. Support for the Social Democrats is strongest amongst younger voters.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are the only parties with significant negative shifts. Fianna Fáil is estimated to be down by around 1.5 percentage points [–3% to –0.5%], while Fine Gael shows the largest decline, with support falling by 3 points and a confidence interval ranging from –4.5% to –1.5%. These are the only two parties, aside from those with gains, whose changes are statistically distinguishable from their 2024 outcomes.
These declines, while statistically significant, are neither unusual nor large by historical standards. Governing parties often see a dip in support in the first years of a legislative cycle, and the overall changes in the electorate remain modest. What is clear, though, is that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have certainlty not gained support since entering a coalition with the Regional Independent Group in January 2025.
All other parties show either no clear change or differences that fall within the margin of error. Independent Ireland, Solidarity–PBP, Labour, and Aontú have mean differences close to zero, with confidence intervals crossing 0—indicating no statistically significant movement. Independents and Others have declined slightly (–0.5%), but their interval (–2% to +1.5%) also includes the possibility of no real change. The Green Party shows a small estimated drop of –0.5% [–1% to 0%].
Updated Datasets
We have also updated our datasets. A new stable version has been uploaded to Harvard Dataverse, containing daily estimates from 1987 to the 2024 general election, as well as all polling results from 1983 to 2024.
You are welcome to use these data for research, news articles, or teaching purposes, provided you include the following citation:
Tom Louwerse and Stefan Müller. 2025. Irish Polling Indicator Datasets: Stable Version (1987–2024). Harvard Dataverse. DOI: 10.7910/DVN/8YVVYX
Author: Stefan Müller