Graphs

Note: This graph displays gains or losses per party, measured as the difference between the Polling Indicator estimate on each date and the latest estimate. A positive score indicates that a party was polling higher at that moment in time than now; a negative score indicates that it was polling worse at that particular time. The shaded area indicates the 95% uncertainty margin; if this margin does not include zero, there is a statistically significant difference between the party score now and in the past.

Note: This graph displays the differences between pairs of parties. Select party 1 and 2 to display the difference in support for them. A positive number means that party 1 was bigger than party two, a negative number means that party 1 is smaller than party 2. The shaded area indicates the 95% uncertainty margin. If it does not cross the line at zero, the difference between two parties is statistically significant at that date. If the shaded area does cross the zero line then we cannot conclude which party is bigger based on the available data.

Note: This graph displays the development of party support in the Polling Indicator over time since the last elections. The shaded areas indicate the 95% uncertainty margin.

Note: The graph displays the house effects of the polling companies for each party. A positive house effect means that a pollster structurally estimates a certain party higher than the average pollster. The dot indicates the best estimate for the house effect (measured as percentage point differences), the lines display 95% uncertainty margins.