Irish Polling Indicator, update June 2022
Recent Irish opinion polls made headlines. The latest Behaviour and Attitudes poll put Sinn Féin at 37 per cent. For the first time in Irish polling history, the most recent Red C survey placed Sinn Fein above Fine Gael and Fianna Fail combined.
This blog post summarises current Irish Polling Indicator estimates, which combine all Irish opinion polls for the Dáil Éireann. Sinn Féin is by far the most popular party in Ireland and stands at 35.5 per cent [34–37.5]. The last six polls placed Sinn Féin at 34 per cent or more. Support for Sinn Féin exceeded 30 per cent in all 18 polls published this year.
Our estimates also show a continuation of Fine Gael’s decline since the summer of 2020. The party stands at 21.5 per cent [19.5–23], slightly ahead of Fianna Fáil on 18.5 per cent [17–20.5]. Current support for the Green Party as the smallest coalition party ranges between 3 and 5 per cent.
The Polling Indicator does not suggest a boost in support for Labour after the election of Ivana Bacik back in March. The party remains stable at 3–5 per cent, and we do not observe a “Bacik bounce”. The Social Democrats stand at 2–3 per cent, having polled at 0 per cent in the latest Behaviour and Attitudes poll. Solidarity-PBP and Aontú both are at 1.5–2.5 per cent. Support for other parties and independent candidates ranges from 8.5 to 11.5 per cent.
Authors: Stefan Müller and Redmond Scales